加裕养猪评论——3月1日美国农业部生猪报告

发布: 2017-04-14 |  作者: 佚名 |   来源: 转载

上一篇 下一篇

加裕logo.jpg
加裕.png
  加裕养猪评论

  Pork Commentary

  加裕总裁兼CEO Jim Long

  Jim Long, President-CEO Genesus Inc.

  2017年4月3日

  April 3, 2017

  3月1日美国农业部生猪报告

  USDA March 1 Hogs and Pigs Report

0.jpg

  与去年同期相比,今年生猪市场库存更多,275.4万头。我们计算得出,在接下来的半年里,每周比去年多出栏100,000头生猪。正好美国新建的屠宰加工厂正在投入生产,处理这些额外增加的市场生猪。新工厂应该可以每周处理超过150,000头,并且持续运转到秋季。

  3月1日美国种猪存栏比去年增加了88,000头,但是3个月前(12月1日)下降了22,000头。市场生猪数量的增加主要来自窝产仔数的提高(10.3头到10.43头),以及每头母猪分娩更多胎次(292.7万到301万,+3%)。在出现重大经济损失以及旧猪场退出生产之前,我们预估种猪存栏将会继续这一缓慢上升趋势。

  Year over year, there is more pigs in the market inventory, 2.754 million head. We calculate that's over 100,000 more per week to go to market over the next half year compared to last. It's real good the new U.S. slaughter plants are coming on stream to handle the extra market production. The new plants should handle well over 150,000 head per week and be operating by the fall.

  The March 1 U.S. breeding herd is up 88,000 from a year ago, but down 22,000 from three months ago (Dec 1)。 The major increase in market hog numbers is coming from increased litter size (10.3 to 10.43) and more farrowings per sow (2.927 million to 3.010 million, +3%)。 The breeding herd we expect to continue a trend to creep higher until we have major financial losses and the older barns will go out of production.

  我们注意到现在很多新建母猪场正在投入生产,但也看到一些猪场由于各种不同的原因退出生产。猪舍年龄,养殖场主年龄,持续的疾病问题,维修状况,劳动力问题等等。

  正好的例子,我们的一些合作伙伴刚刚参观了一个正在被清群的2,000头规模母猪场。他们参观了场区设施,大部分设备年久失修,厂房建设不同阶段和不同程度的维修保养。关键信息:怀疑这样的猪场能否得到投资翻新从而保持生产。新建一个猪场比挽救老猪场容易的多。

  We see some new sow barns going into production now, but let also see some producers quitting for several different reasons. Age of barns, age of owners, continued disease challenges, state of repair, labour issues, etc.

  Case in point, some of our associates just visited a 2,000 sow unit that was being liquidated of sows. They toured facilities, equipment mostly worn out, and buildings built in stages and varying degrees of upkeep. Take home message: doubt if this unit will get the investment to renovate to stay in production. It's easier to give birth than bring the dead back to life.

  巴西

  Brazil

  上周,我们写到关于巴西正面临肉类检测的调查,随后关闭了一些巴西产品的主要国家市场。我们写到所有出口商住在“玻璃房子”里,类似巴西面临的问题可能会影响任何一个出口国家。下面是一则由Mario Faccin 翻译的评论,他是一个负责 30,000头母猪的巴西农场主。我们在巴西已经访问了Mario,他也在加拿大拜访过我们。就像许多人一样,作为养猪行业的主人,他投入了所有的激情。

  “我们公司,Master Agroindustrial,拥有超过30,000头母猪,作为一个猪肉出口商,也受到了波及,我们表示全力支持针对少数不良代理商的不当行为展开的”弱肉“调查”,并且强调绝大多数巴西肉类行业豁免, 甚至在经过巴西联邦警察2年调查之后,也仅限少数低重要性的行业公司拖后腿。虽然如此,由于事实已经被报道出来,在没有技术支持的情况下,对你们正好是有利的,“我们都住在玻璃房子里”受到巴西肉类行业有力的庇护,随着现今客户群体超过了150个国家,我们不指望巴西的2.07亿消费者。“

  ”同样,幸亏巴西肉类的质量,有大量产业链的支持,加上政府的工作中,以及在世界范围内市场上获得了超过50年的信任,我们已经恢复了几乎整个市场或者98%以上,这是一个证明,证明和回报了巴西肉类产业的适用性和信心。我们都有玻璃房子,每个人都在认真呵护它。“

  Last week, we wrote about the issues that Brazil was facing with the investigation into meat inspection and subsequent closure of some major country markets to Brazil's products. We wrote that all exporters live in ”glass houses“ and issues like Brazil faces could hit any export country. Below is a translated comment from Mario Faccin, a Brazilian producer with 30,000 sows. We have visited Mario in Brazil, and he has visited us in Canada. Like many of us, he is ”all in“ when it comes to passion and ownership of the pig industry.

  ”Our company, Master Agroindustrial, which owns more than 30,000 sows, also involved as a pork exporter, expresses our full support to the the “Weak Meat” investigations regarding the misconduct of a few irresponsible agents, and to emphasize that the overwhelming majority of Brazilian meat industry was exempt, even after 2 years of investigations by the Brazilian Federal Police, restricting the diversions to very few industries of low importance. Even so, and because of the way the facts were published, without technical support, which was well placed for you, “we all have glass house” is sheltered by the strength of the Brazilian meat industry, today with customers in more than 150 countries, not counting on the 207 million Brazilian consumers.“

  ”Also, thanks to the quality of Brazilian meat, supported by the great chain of production, added to the work of the government and the trust that has been gained over more than 50 years on markets worldwide, we have already reestablished almost the entire market or over 98% of it, so this is a proof that attests and rewards the suitability and confidence of the Brazilian meat industry.

  We all have glass house and everyone has to take care of it.“

  英国

  United Kingdom


  过去一周,我们同一些英国生猪生产商在一起几天。这个行业现在做的不错,有相当可观的收益。英国是一个案例,研究一个行业如何陷入竞争劣势。在英国,现在有大约400,000头母猪。曾今是800,000头。现在,他们一半的猪肉来自进口。不胜其数的规则和零售商决定着供给。例如,外面的母猪,抗生素的使用,空间,断奶日龄,秸秆,不阉割,猪栏中的玩具等。所有这些要求导致生产成本上升,但是大部分的规则并不适用于从其他国家进口的猪肉。随着时间的推移,英国养猪业失去了市场占有率。现在,随着英国脱欧(英国退出欧盟),没有人知道未来如何处理进口猪肉。

  当我们回顾英国,我们看到了是什么影响了行业竞争力。我们在俄罗斯,中国,还有很多亚洲国家拥有市场。少数问题,例如猪舍类型,抗生素,空间分配等是新建场或者生产实践中需要考虑的一个因素。在北美和欧洲,我们必须认识到我们出口猪肉的很多国家,同我们一样,没有演变出增加成本的政策或实践条例。

  This past week, we spent several days with some British pig producers. The industry is doing fine there now, with decent profits. United Kingdom is a case study on how an industry can be pushed into a competitive disadvantage. In the United Kingdom, there are about 400,000 sows now. There used to be 800,000. Now, about half their pork is imported. There are now numerous rules and retailer dictates on housing. For example, outside sows, antibiotics usage, space, weaning age, straw, non-castrates, toys in pens, etc. All these points increased cost of production, but most of the rules didn't apply to imported pork from other countries. Over time, the British pig industry lost market share. Now, with Brexit (Britain leaving European Union), no one is sure how imported pork will be handled in the future.

  When we look at Britain, we see what has happened to the industry's competitiveness. We also are in Russia, China, and some other Asian markets. Few issues, such as housing type, antibiotics, space allocation, etc., are a factor in new buildings or production practices. In North America and Europe, we must be aware the many countries we export pork to are not evolving into policies or practices that increase their costs as we are.

5.jpg


  在西班牙Zaragoza的国际动物生产博览会

  Figan Exhibition in Zaragoza, Spain

6.jpg
  Mexican Producers Delegation

  墨西哥生产商代表团


  上周在Zaragoza举办了国际动物生产博览会。一个十分庞大的展会,929家参展商-其中542家来自西班牙,387家来自其他国家,展会上有从机械和设备到动物的所有东西,尤其是猪的。这是一个组织安排不错的展会。西班牙是世界第三大生猪生产国。

  加裕公司度过了忙碌而又成功地一周。加裕的很多朋友-目现有客户和我们密切合作的联系人,都驻足在我们展位前,还有新的联系人和一些新客户。本周证实了所有大型生产商和行业人士都知道加裕,市场正在求购更多的杜洛克。

  所有大型全球基因公司都出席了展会,一些小型国内基因公司也参展了。我们的展位正与DBI和Choice Genetics相邻,展会期间的整体画面显示-加裕展位是最繁忙的。另一方面,一大波拉丁美洲生产商在我们展位前停留。来自西班牙,秘鲁,哥伦比亚,中美洲,还有阿根廷的人们都出席了2017年国际动物生产博览会。

  This past week was the FIGAN show in Zaragoza. Quite a large show, with 929 exhibitors - 542 from Spain and 387 foreigners with everything from machinery and equipment to animals, especially pigs. A very well organized show.  Spain is the third largest pig producer in the world.

  Genesus had a busy and successful week. Many Genesus friends - existing customers and the contacts we are working closely with - all stopped by, as well as new contacts and several new leads. It was proved this week that all the large producers and industry people now know about Genesus, and the market is looking more and more for Duroc.

  All the larger global genetic companies were represented, and some smaller domestic genetic companies as well. Our booth was right next to DBI and Choice Genetics, and the general picture during the show - Genesus booth was the busiest! On the other hand, an important number of Latin-American producers stopped by our Genesus booth. People from Mexico, Peru, Columbia, Central America, and Argentina were all present at FIGAN 2017.

7.jpg






TAG: 生猪
上一篇 下一篇